CBNFridaySpecial丨ThestrongestSpringFestivalfilmscheduleinhistorywhattoexpect？

　　Hello! Welcome to this edition of CBN Friday Special. I’m Stephanie Li.
　　In 2023, January 22 isn＂t just another lazy Sunday — it’s also the beginning of the Chinese New Year. And the highly anticipated sequel to Chinese sci-fi blockbuster The Wandering Earthis being readied for a release on the first day of the Lunar New Year.
　　The date was reconfirmed at a press conference during the national Golden Rooster and Hundred Flowers Film Festival, underscoring the Chinese authorities’ commitment to positioning the film as a must-watch tentpole.
　　Reprising actor Wu Jing as a fearless astronaut, the trailer of The Wandering Earth 2 reveals several new roles, including Hong Kong star Andy Lau as an engineer and heartbroken father who would do anything to extend the ＂life＂ of his deceased daughter in a special way. The movie also features veteran actors Li Xuejian and Sha Yi.
　　The second installment returns to an earlier period, recounting how the world is facing an unprecedented crisis, as the Sun approached the end of its life cycle and was set to explode, prompting humanity to build giant engines to propel planet Earth outside of the solar system to find a new celestial home.
　　The Wandering Earthwas based on a short story written by Liu Cixin who is at the forefront of Chinese science fiction. In 2015, he became the first Asian to win the Hugo Award for his novelThe Three-Body Problem.
　　The first Wandering Earthwas described as China’s first sci-fi blockbuster and became one the country’s highest grossing film of all time following a Chinese New Year release in 2019, having taken 4.7 billion yuan.
　　In 2023, seven domestic movies have so far secured a spot to join the highly competitive Spring Festival holiday movie period, as renowned Chinese director Zhang Yimou＂s suspense film Full River Redhas also recently announced its release date on Jan. 22. The nameFull River Redcomes from a poem by Yue Fei, a military general who lived during the Southern Song Dynasty (1127-1279) in which the film is set, and was well-known for his patriotism and loyalty to his country.
　　Hidden Blade, starring Hong Kong film veteran Tony Leung, and Chinese mainland star Wang Yibo is also scheduled to premiere during the 2023 Chinese Lunar New Year. The film tells a story set during the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression (1931-1945).
　　Together with them, comedy Five Hundred Miles, animation featureDeep Sea, children-friendly cartoonBoonie Bears: Guardian Code, andPing-pong of China, a sports drama based on true story, are scheduled to hit the screen during this season.
　　Chinese New Year is a highly coveted release period, which typically sees two or three top titles earn hundreds of millions of yuan during their first week of release and it is not unusual for the holiday＂s box-office champion to become highest earner of the year.
　　The Wandering Earth 2currently tops the most-anticipated list on Chinese movie ticketing platform Maoyan, with more than 1.06 million users wanting to watch it as of mid-Friday, followed byFull River Redwith some 776,000 andHidden Bladewith nearly 485,000.
　　And the seven films cover all the most popular genres in the mainstream film market, thus the lineup is being called ＂the strongest Chinese New Year film schedule in history.＂
　　Film critics have predicted that the total box office for this year’s Lunar New Year season to likely exceed 7 billion yuan, as high quality lineup with box office appeal, rich variety of genres, plus relaxed Covid measures, can lights the fuse leading to a strong resurgence for Chinese film industry in 2023.
　　The past year has been a tough year for the Chinese mainland film market, which has been deeply battered by the COVID-19 pandemic.
　　Chinese ticketing platform Maoyan showed that the 2022 annual box office in the mainland was only 30 billion yuan, much lower than the 47 billion yuan in 2021. The market’s Top 5 movies in 2022 were all local with The Battle at Lake Changjin IIfollowed by sci-fi comedyMoon Man, comedyToo Cool to Kill, family dramaLighting Up the Starsand thrillerHome Coming.
　　The highly-anticipated Avatar: The Way of Water ranks ninth in the chart, being one of the only two foreign titles to make it to the top 10, along with the adventure flickJurassic World: Dominion.
　　Theaters across China have been repeatedly closed due to the pandemic＂s ever-changing situation, leading to a greatly reduced operating rate. The worst operating rate reached as low as 35.6 percent - only 4,422 theaters opened nationwide - in late November, according to Maoyan.
　　In the first three quarters of 2022, 38 films withdrew or changed their release dates due to COVID-19 flare-ups, leaving cinemas with no blockbusters to get audiences into seats.
　　Cinemas have tried every means to survive, such as holding film exhibitions, screening the World Cup live and changing their theaters into a place for holding talk shows or even taking an afternoon nap.
　　Fortunately, with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China, the film industry has started to see a light at the end of the tunnel. Maoyan’s data show that the operation rate of theaters reached 84.5 percent last Sunday.
　　Up ahead, however, there’s some concern about the typically lucrative Chinese New Year holiday, with the uncertainty related to the Covid situation in localities. At the same time, China was very limited in granting entry to the market for Hollywood films.
　　Also factoring were short lead times for marketing and promotion with notifications of dates, even for local films in some cases, coming too close to releases, and the temporary withdrawals in 2022 that have left a certain number of films waiting to be aired, making the box office data for the film market in 2023 even more unpredictable.
　　Anyway, the Lunar New Year is only a week away, and 2023 feels particularly cheerful, since most of us can now travel overseas or go back to our hometowns without a lot of travel restrictions, and it’s always a good idea to go out for a movie, or movies, to celebrate the Year of the Rabbit with loved ones.
　　＂史上最强春节档＂又回来了，七部国产电影外加好莱坞大片吹响集结号，你选好了吗？
　　今年春节档不仅有《流浪地球2》《满江红》《无名》《交换人生》《中国乒乓之绝地反击》《深海》《熊出没·伴我＂熊芯＂》七部新片，连《阿凡达2》都将延长放映进入春节档，有好莱坞大片的春节档更是难得一遇。
　　七部新片题材涉及科幻、古装悬疑、谍战、喜剧、体育、奇幻、合家欢等。既有＂吴京＋刘德华＋李雪健＂、＂沈腾＋易烊千玺＋张译＂、＂梁朝伟＋王一博＂这样的顶配阵容，也有＂雷佳音＋张小斐＂、＂邓超＋孙俪＂，＂田晓鹏+粒子水墨技术＂、＂熊大+熊二+光头强＂这样的实力阵容。神仙打架，大咖云集，各显其能，将满足春节期间不同人群、不同层次的观影需求。
　　最受期待的莫过于《流浪地球2》，既是最早定档的，同时也是热度最高的。2019年春节档上映的《流浪地球》点燃了观众对中国科幻电影的信心，引发了观众对于中国科幻电影的超强期待。续集《流浪地球2》除了导演郭帆、监制刘慈欣、主演吴京回归之外，还集结了刘德华、李雪健、沙溢、王智等演员。
　　影片围绕前作《流浪地球》之前的故事展开，数字生命争端初露端倪，月球发动机首次曝光，＂太阳危机＂一触即发，人类命运何去何从引发巨大悬念。《流浪地球2》为观众展现了独特且宏大的世界观，更多充满想象力的丰富情节将露出真容。无论视觉特效，还是故事氛围与质感，相较前作稳步升级。
　　张艺谋今年也携新作《满江红》再度进军春节档。影片同样采用沈腾与易烊千玺双男主搭档，讲述岳飞死后四年、秦桧与金国会谈之际，小兵张大与亲兵营副统领孙均被裹挟进层层阴谋的故事。
　　梁朝伟携手王一博出演谍战题材，则是程耳执导电影《无名》最大的看点。该片是博纳影业＂中国三部曲＂的最后一部（前两部分别为《中国医生》《长津湖》）。影片聚焦波谲云诡的隐蔽战线，讲述地下工作者们冒着生命危险送出情报，用热血保卫祖国的故事。程耳极富个人特色的电影语言和梁朝伟的演技，让人对这部作品充满期待。
　　雷佳音、张小斐、张宥浩主演的电影《交换人生》则是春节档唯一一部喜剧片，融合了奇幻元素，围绕意外换身、交换人生的剧情展开。
　　动画电影《深海》则构建了一个全新的海底世界，讲述一位少女在神秘海底世界中追寻探索，邂逅一段独特生命旅程的故事。影片主打精美视效和中式美学，在国漫迷中早已拉足期待值。
　　此外，近几年几乎未缺席过春节档的＂熊出没＂系列电影今年也将如约而至，满足主打儿童观众的亲子观影市场需求。
　　同时间上映的还有邓超、俞白眉执导的《中国乒乓之绝地反击》，为春节档增加了运动题材。影片根据真实故事改编，讲述了国球史上＂五虎将＂一段由低谷到巅峰的精彩反击故事。
　　尽管目前春节档还未开启预售，但根据猫眼专业版的数据，截至1月13日中午，《流浪地球2》的想看人数已达106万，位列第一，《满江红》和《无名》分别以77.6万、和48.5万的想看人数排在二、三位。
　　票房期待方面，猫眼专业版提供的第三方媒体超前预测显示，包括拓普咨询、电影情报处在内的多家机构预测，《流浪地球2》的预测总票房为28亿-38亿元；《满江红》预测总票房为15亿-20亿元；《深海》预测总票房为14.5亿-24亿元；《无名》的预测总票房为3.5亿-6亿元。此外，根据上述第三方媒体的票房预测，今年春节档总票房很有可能超过2021年春节档的78.4亿元，有望成为史上＂最强春节档＂。
　　2022年对于中国影业而言，可谓是最艰难的一年。全年全国电影市场总票房300.67亿元，同比减少37.0%；观影人次7.12亿，同比减少39.1%。从最近几年电影票房收入情况来看，2020年票房收入更是直接＂膝盖斩＂至不足200亿元，2021年虽有所复苏，仍不足500亿元，相当于2016年的水平。
　　2022年电影市场持续低迷，影院营业率也降至低位，很多电影无法定档导致内容供给端不足，大众观影意愿不强。可喜的是，今年开年伴随着疫情政策的优化，经济呈复苏态势，多部＂超头部＂、＂头部＂影片定档春节档，电影市场也正走出＂低谷＂。从放映端看，我国拥有8万块大银幕，3D银幕数量也是全球最多，完备的基础设施是电影市场复苏的有力保障。
　　中原证券近日发布研报表示，展望2023年，国内电影市场已具备复苏条件。一方面，政策的调整使未来影院面临政策性经营限制的可能性大幅降低，在影院快速响应下，目前国内影院营业率已回升至80%以上；另一方面，2022年未能如期上映的影片，为2023年及以后的电影市场形成内容储备，上映后有望带动观众的观影需求。
　　Executive Editor: Sonia YU
　　Editor: LI Yanxia
　　Host: Stephanie LI
　　Writer: Stephanie LI
　　Sound Editor: Stephanie LI
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　　Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.
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