比尔盖茨对人工智能的五项预见

　　Bill Gates Says We＂re Witnessing a ＂Stunning＂   New Technology Age  . 5 Ways You Must Prepare Now. ChatGPT is only the beginning. A.I. will change everything, the Microsoft co-founder says.
　　#比尔·盖茨#认为，他一生中见过很多技术变化和进步，但只有两项是革命性、令他印象深刻的。
　　第一项是计算机图形用户界面（GUI），第二项便是人工智能（AI）。
　　用过DOS系统的人知道图形界面和之前的命令行界面之间的区别，说天壤之别一点都不为过。就像盖茨说的，一看到这么友好的界面，公司便迫不及待地开会、集思广益用它来做什么。如今的各种应用，比如在约会应用中移动鼠标找下一位，在游戏中点击鼠标干掉一个敌人，或者在披萨应用中选中某一图案添加披萨配料，能做到这一切，都源于70年代图形界面技术的发明。
　　42年后，open.ai的聊天机器人出来了，盖茨对它专门提了一个挑战，让它攻克生物AP课程。之所以选中生物学，是因为只受过训练然后简单地把结果反馈出来是不够的，机器人还需要有批判性的思考能力并能写论文回答。最后，机器人成功地完成了盖茨的挑战。
　　盖茨原本以为AI机器人需要两三年的时间来完成这个挑战，但最后只用了几个月。并且成绩很好，60道题答对了59道。后来，有一位与项目无关的外部专家对其进行测试后，给了机器人5分的高分，相当于大学生物课程的A。
　　挑战完成后，盖茨又问了机器人另一个问题：＂对一个孩子生了病的父亲你跟他说什么？＂盖茨说机器人给出的答案比现场参与测试的任何人能给出的都好。于是，盖茨说：＂这项技术令人叹为观止，是我看到的自图形界面以来的最重要的技术进步。＂
　　盖茨认为人工智能的时代已经开始。他把这个最有希望的信息发布在他的博客里，并发出邮件向全世界发送了同样的信息。
　　最近，像openAI的ChatGPT、谷歌的Bard和微软的Bing等人工智能不停面世，频频登上头条。但是，盖茨认为，这才刚刚开始，更大的变化即将到来。
　　以盖茨式的方式，他立即开始想象#人工智能#将如何改写未来。以下是 他预见的一些变化 ，以及您应该做的准备。
　　1. 现在就开始问自己，如何让您的生意从人工智能中受益？
　　如果盖茨的预测是正确的，那么我们确实得想想是否真的需要人工智能，就好像20年前我们在想我的公司是否真的需要一个网站一样。先发现这一点的人一定会比晚发现的人具有优势。
　　人工智能的发展会像互联网和手机一样，整个行业都将围绕它重新定位，而这完全取决于企业重视和利用它的程度。
　　2. 开始以不同的方式思考您的工作。
　　人工智能的一个重要方面是它能够帮助我们更高效地工作。盖茨以自己为例：在过去的几年里，我一直在使用应用程序 Otter.ai 来转录我的所有会议和采访。它记笔记的效率比我高得多，几乎每一个字都能记下来。它改变了我的工作方式并提高了我的工作效率。
　　虽然我找不到任何关于这方面的统计数据，但我很确定 Otter.ai 已经影响了转录员的就业市场。由于各种原因，我本人从未使用过转录员，但不可避免地，一些曾经使用过转录员的人有的已经转向 Otter.ai 或其它类似的应用程序。但我猜想，另一方面，人工智能完成转录之后，如果有人能从转录后的笔记中提取最有价值的信息，那么这种人也是很有市场的，我自己也可以使用这样的人。
　　许多目前由人类处理的任务，例如文件处理和会计，可以由人工智能完成。但这不等于人工智能会消灭人的工作，从历史上看，人工智能会取代人们工作中一些乏味的事情，但会创造出新的工作机会，例如，在医疗保健等文书工作繁重的行业，人工智能可能是一种福音，可以使医疗人员减少花费在文书上的时间，而更多地去照顾病人。至于以后究竟会有些什么样的新的就业机会，现在还不得而知。
　　3.开始计划您的私人代理。
　　盖茨做的一个有趣的预测是，迟早我们每个人都会拥有一个所谓的私人代理，一个数字个人助理，它会帮你查看电子邮件，了解你参加的会议，阅读你关注的东西，也阅读你懒得去看的东西。凡是使用过亚马逊Alexa、苹果Siri、谷歌Google Assistant的人可能对这些工具的工作原理有一些模糊的了解，但盖茨觉得这些工具与人工智能比起来都太原始了。
　　他说，企业也会有代理，一个了解整个公司情况的代理，可以直接为员工提供咨询，能参加每次会议，随时回答问题。
　　4. 不要担心人工智能会失去控制。
　　有些人预测有一天人工智能会消灭人类，那是杞人忧天。盖茨早期的帖子里曾对人工智能做出区分，一种是大家熟悉的类似现今的人工智能，它可以学会把事情做得更好，但对于一项全新的任务它无法胜任；另一种是通用人工智能，或称其为＂强人工智能＂，它能够学习任何事情、执行任何任务，这种＂强人工智能＂目前还不存在。计算行业正在就如何创建＂强人工智能＂，以及未来有没有可能把它造出来进行着激烈的辩论。
　　如果计算机科学家真的有一天能把＂强人工智能＂创造出来，那么这些智能很可能有能力自己选择目标，而这些目标又会是什么呢？如果它们与人类的利益发生冲突怎么办？我们是否应该努力阻止＂强人工智能＂的发展？随着时间的推移，这些问题将变得越来越紧迫。
　　他说，＂强人工智能＂在未来确实有可能出现，到时，它可以判别人类是否是一种威胁或干脆停止关心人类。但他说，那个未来还很遥远，也可能永远不会到来。过去几个月的任何突破都离＂强人工智能＂差得很远。
　　5. 多关心关心人们如何使用人工智能。
　　目前更紧迫的问题是人类应该如何使用人工智能，是用它来使世界变得更好呢，还是变得更糟？有一点盖茨没提但显然已经发生了的事情是，人工智能可用于进行无人机攻击。取决于谁是被攻击的目标，这也许是好事也许是坏事。另外，再想想前面提过的私人代理，他会帮你查阅电子邮件，也会帮您购物，但如果它未经许可就把您的信息告诉保险公司，那怎么办？诸如此类的问题需要解决，很可能最后都得立法解决。
　　作为一名慈善家，盖茨专注于降低儿童死亡率、改善教育和减缓气候变化等，他看到的是人工智能在这些方面的巨大潜力。例如，它可以弥补贫困社区医生和教师的不足，可以根据当地条件培育出更好的种子，可以根据当地的土壤和天气给农民提供种子建议，可以帮助开发牲畜药物和疫苗。
　　这些都只是初步的想法， 正如最先向盖茨展示图形用户界面的开发人员可能无法预见谷歌地球或Instagram聊天应用一样，我们现在也不知道人工智能将如何在未来几年或几十年内改变我们的世界。但有一点可以肯定的，它一定会改变我们的世界！
　　原文链接：
　　https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/bill-gates-says-were-witnessing-a-stunning-new-technology-age-5-ways-to-prepare.html
　　原文拷贝如下以防链接访问不到：
　　＂ The age of A.I. has begun. ＂ On Tuesday, Bill Gates sent this mostly hopeful message out to the world through his Gates Notes blog and email list. Of course, artificial intelligence in general, and public-facing A.I. apps such as ChatGPT, Bard, and the new A.I.-powered Bing, have gotten plenty of headlines recently. But, Gates says,  much bigger changes are coming .
　　The 67-year-old Microsoft co-founder says he＂s witnessed only two  technological advances  in his lifetime that struck him as  revolutionary . The first was the  graphical user interface , which he first saw in 1980. It＂s hard to imagine now, but at that time, if you were going to use a computer--which most people never did--you had to type in the exact command you wanted in response to a c prompt such as this: C:>
　　When he first saw the demo of the Windows-like (or Apple-like) interface that allowed users to click on what they wanted, he knew it would change the world forever. A brilliant programmer had shown him the demo, Gates writes, ＂and we immediately started brainstorming about all the things we could do with such a user-friendly approach to computing.＂ Every time you swipe left on a dating app, shoot a bad guy in a video game, or tap an icon to order extra toppings on your pizza? It all goes back to that one innovation.
　　Forty-two years later, Gates had the same feeling that the whole world was about to change when a bot from Open.ai fulfilled a challenge he＂d created it for it: to pass the Advanced Placement biology test. ＂I picked AP Bio because the test is more than a simple regurgitation of scientific facts--it asks you to think critically about biology,＂ he explains. Therefore, the A.I. would be forced to answer questions it hadn＂t been specifically trained to answer, and it would have to write essay answers as well.
　　＂I thought the challenge would keep them busy for two or three years. They finished it in just a few months,＂ he writes. He says he watched in awe as the A.I. got 59 answers right in a 60-question exam. An outside expert scored the test and gave the A.I. a 5, the highest score and the equivalent of an A in a college biology course.
　　That done, Gates asked the A.I. a different question to challenge its general knowledge: ＂What do you say to a father with a sick child?＂ He doesn＂t relay the answer, but says it was better than anyone present at the test could have given. ＂The whole experience was  stunning ,＂ he writes. ＂ I knew I had just seen the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface. ＂
　　And so, in Gates-like fashion, he immediately began imagining  how A.I. could rewrite the future . Here are some of the changes he  foresees , and what you should do to prepare.
　　1. Start asking right now how A.I. can benefit your business.
　　If Gates＂s prediction is right--and there＂s every reason to think it is--then wondering whether you really need A.I. in order to run your business may be like wondering 20 years ago whether you really need a website. Yes, you do. And the business leaders who figure that out sooner will have an automatic advantage over those who figure it out later.
　　The development of A.I. is as fundamental as the introduction of the internet and the mobile phone, Gates writes. ＂Entire industries will reorient around it. Businesses will distinguish themselves by how well they use it.＂
　　2. Start thinking differently about your job.
　　One big way that A.I. is already changing everything is its ability to help all of us work more efficiently. Take me. For the past few years, I＂ve been using the app Otter.ai to transcribe all my meetings and interviews (with the other people＂s permission, of course). It＂s a much more efficient note-taker than I am and captures almost every word. It＂s changed the way I work and made me more productive.
　　Though I can＂t find any stats about this, I＂m quite certain Otter.ai has affected the job market for human transcriptionists. I myself never used a transcriptionist for various reasons, but inevitably some people who once did are now using Otter or some other application instead. But I＂m guessing there＂s still plenty of room for people who can take an A.I.-generated transcript and efficiently pull the most relevant information out of it--I could use someone like that myself. And there are a lot of unfilled openings out there for jobs that someone with the kinds of skills that made them a good transcriptionist could also do well.
　　Gates writes that many tasks that are currently handled by humans, such as document handling and accounting, could be done by A.I. instead. But if history is any guide, this won＂t so much eliminate jobs as it will eliminate some of the more tedious parts of jobs, and create opportunities for new jobs, some of which we haven＂t thought of yet. In paperwork-bogged industries like health care, he notes, A.I. could be a blessing. It would allow medical offices to spend more time caring for patients and less filling out insurance claims.
　　3. Start planning for your personal agent.
　　One intriguing prediction Gates made is that in time we will each have what he calls a personal agent. He explains: ＂Think of it as a digital personal assistant: It will see your latest emails, know about the meetings you attend, read what you read, and read the things you don＂t want to bother with.＂ Those of us who use Alexa, Siri, the Google Assistant, or all three already have a faint inkling of how this might work, but what Gates envisions makes these assistants look very primitive.
　　He says businesses will have company-wide agents as well. ＂An agent that understands a particular company will be available for its employees to consult directly and should be part of every meeting so it can answer questions,＂ he writes.
　　4. Stop worrying so much about A.I. running amok.
　　What about all those dire predictions that A.I. might one day turn against humanity? Gates has heard them too. Early in his post, he draws a distinction between the familiar artificial intelligence of today, which can learn to do things better but not take on completely new tasks, and artificial general intelligence, or ＂strong＂ A.I., which is ＂capable of learning any task or subject.＂ Strong A.I. doesn＂t exist yet, he writes. ＂There is a robust debate going on in the computing industry about how to create it, and whether it can even be created at all.＂
　　If computer scientists do succeed in developing strong A.I., those intelligences may well be able to choose their own goals, Gates writes. ＂What will those goals be? What happens if they conflict with humanity＂s interests? Should we try to prevent strong A.I. from ever being developed? These questions will get more pressing with time.＂
　　In the future, he says, it is indeed possible that a strong A.I. could decide humans are a threat or ＂simply stop caring about us.＂ But that future is distant and may never arrive at all, he says. ＂None of the breakthroughs of the past few months have moved us substantially closer to strong A.I..＂
　　5. Start worrying more about how A.I. is being used by people.
　　A more pressing concern is the question of how we humans use A.I. to make the world a better place or a worse one. Gates doesn＂t mention this, but A.I. can be used to target inpiduals with drone attacks, which could be good or bad, depending on who＂s doing the targeting and why. More mundanely, consider your future personal agent who reads your emails and likely does your shopping for you. ＂Can an insurance company ask your agent things about you without your permission?＂ Gates asks. Issues such as this will need to be worked out, most likely by lawmakers.
　　As a philanthropist focused on things like reducing childhood mortality, improving education, and slowing climate change, Gates sees huge potential for A.I. to help with all these problems. For example, it can help make up for the lack of available doctors and teachers in poor communities, he writes. How can it help with climate change? ＂A.I. can help develop better seeds based on local conditions, advise farmers on the best seeds to plant based on the soil and weather in their area, and help develop drugs and vaccines for livestock,＂ he writes.
　　Those are simply some  preliminary ideas . Just as the developer who first showed Gates a graphical user interface likely couldn＂t foresee Google Earth or Instagram, most of us alive right now have no idea  how A.I. will transform our world over the next few years and decades.   But we can be sure that it will.